I expect this will trend longer for 2 reasons

1) The new contract really worked. People don't treat upgrading to reserve like selling a kidney. Ie it takes more relative seniority to hold captain than it did before - reversion to historical norms.

2) Three years ago, a shockingly large portion of the pilot group was very new. Like 15% of the airline on probation. That hiring rate in and of itself produces bid/upgrade weirdness. But it also makes 2 years much more senior than it "should" be. This is a fluke that will not repeat. Ie - seniority progression per year is slowing down - reversion to historical norms.

An unknown here is whether LCC/ULCC capacity shrinks and allows UAL to continue substantial annual growth. Do we acquire Jet Blue, etc.

But I would not be surprised if 2026 hires are looking at 7+ years for 320CA in ORD.