ORD Base
01-11-2026 | 08:41 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,197
Likes: 164
I got bored and ran some numbers. With 600 retirements/year, to reach 65% system seniority requires
4.5 years at 7% annual growth, which would put United close to 25K pilots by summer 2029
5.5 years at 5% annual growth (24K pilots, summer 2030)
7 years at 3% ( 23K pilots, winter 2033)
4.5 years at 7% annual growth, which would put United close to 25K pilots by summer 2029
5.5 years at 5% annual growth (24K pilots, summer 2030)
7 years at 3% ( 23K pilots, winter 2033)
01-12-2026 | 09:35 AM
#22
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2022
Posts: 43
Likes: 1
I got bored and ran some numbers. With 600 retirements/year, to reach 65% system seniority requires
4.5 years at 7% annual growth, which would put United close to 25K pilots by summer 2029
5.5 years at 5% annual growth (24K pilots, summer 2030)
7 years at 3% ( 23K pilots, winter 2033)
4.5 years at 7% annual growth, which would put United close to 25K pilots by summer 2029
5.5 years at 5% annual growth (24K pilots, summer 2030)
7 years at 3% ( 23K pilots, winter 2033)
The 22,000-24,000 pilot seniority list makes perfect sense based on United NEXT projections for net airframe growth. That said, I have no idea how they were able to throw out a 28,000-30,000 pilot group size - with a straight face - to new hires just 1-2 years ago.
01-13-2026 | 06:32 AM
#23
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 373
Likes: 14
We have a large number of 777 out of service presently... the duration of some of these remains anybody's guess.
Displacements off an aging and parked WB fleet that's being slowly retired can most certainly preclude new WB upgrades and motion!
01-13-2026 | 08:57 AM
#24
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,167
Likes: 226
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
that might happen for a period of time, but there’s just no way that is sustainable.
Call nbca 66% system seniority. In a homogeneous system with no growth you would get there 1/3 of the way to retirement. Average 30 year career = 10 years. Growth will bring that down some but 3 or even 5 years just cannot stand long term.
Call nbca 66% system seniority. In a homogeneous system with no growth you would get there 1/3 of the way to retirement. Average 30 year career = 10 years. Growth will bring that down some but 3 or even 5 years just cannot stand long term.
01-13-2026 | 10:19 AM
#25
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Joined: Jan 2024
Posts: 892
Likes: 151
It all depends how many senior people stay as NBFO (or WBFO). Just looked an open day trip NBFO. Desired by 10, 5 of those would be in the top 50% as NB captains, 1 could hold WB captain in base. If nobody bypasses with a single fleet/single base I agree with you, but with all the options at UAL it becomes more fuzzy IMO.
01-14-2026 | 02:11 PM
#26
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,167
Likes: 226
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
Absolutely. I totally agree. And I think as growth slows I think it will take make better seniority to hold NBCA. Required seniority was at an all time low during record growth a few years ago, and has since crept up, validating my theory somewhat.
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