Approximate date of hire of the junior ORD A320 CA?

Thanks for all the information in this thread. It's very helpful.

 

Don’t have the hire date but the most junior ORD 320 CA has a 14500 seniority number out of 18500 active pilots currently. The vacancy bid from December shows an 8300 seniority number to get 320 CA ORD awarded.

 

It’s a June 2023 hire. Interestingly enough, he was awarded that position in a mid-2024 vacancy bid and has been the plug ever since.

 

I doubt that will change anytime soon either. For most people, it’s usually the more senior NB.

 

I expect this will trend longer for 2 reasons

1) The new contract really worked. People don't treat upgrading to reserve like selling a kidney. Ie it takes more relative seniority to hold captain than it did before - reversion to historical norms.

2) Three years ago, a shockingly large portion of the pilot group was very new. Like 15% of the airline on probation. That hiring rate in and of itself produces bid/upgrade weirdness. But it also makes 2 years much more senior than it "should" be. This is a fluke that will not repeat. Ie - seniority progression per year is slowing down - reversion to historical norms.

An unknown here is whether LCC/ULCC capacity shrinks and allows UAL to continue substantial annual growth. Do we acquire Jet Blue, etc.

But I would not be surprised if 2026 hires are looking at 7+ years for 320CA in ORD.

 

This is my prediction as well, maybe not 7+ years, but I think the "see you back in 12 months for captain" ship has set sail.

 

I think the NBCA will go about 3-5 years with 320 CA being a smidge senior.

O believe the massive growth and hiring will keep upgrade times low

 

that might happen for a period of time, but there’s just no way that is sustainable.

Call nbca 66% system seniority. In a homogeneous system with no growth you would get there 1/3 of the way to retirement. Average 30 year career = 10 years. Growth will bring that down some but 3 or even 5 years just cannot stand long term.

 

I agree completely. I was thinking the next 5ish years. Long term, I think it’ll settle at around 5-7 years.

we keep a consistent 300-400 retirements every year for years to come last I checked so a healthy amount of retirements will keep it sub 10 years imo

 

I got bored and ran some numbers. With 600 retirements/year, to reach 65% system seniority requires

4.5 years at 7% annual growth, which would put United close to 25K pilots by summer 2029
5.5 years at 5% annual growth (24K pilots, summer 2030)
7 years at 3% ( 23K pilots, winter 2033)