Originally Posted by
SVCTA
That is true. Just as a data point, missile barrages from Iran are down 90% from the first day of this 'conflict', and drone attacks down 70%. In short, they just don't have the resources to keep it up. And the security apparatus that has kept the IRGC in control for so long is beginning to show signs of fracture. Soldiers, police and IRGC members are starting to abandon their posts. Once the enforcement arm of the IRGC is weakened the remaining 90mm Iranians may just show up en force. I mean, the president of Iran apologized to all of their neighbors for shooting that them, and sadi they would stop. Then they kept doing it. Iran's parliament told him to shut up and then called for his removal. To save all the specifics, there is a leadership vacuum/power struggle going on over there. But none of that matters if they have nothing to shoot at their neighbors, which the data indicate is highly likely to be the case.
Like I said, there are a lot of layers to this onion, but there are early indications that this will turn in to a internal struggle for survival and control inside Iran, and maybe sooner than later.
This might be all true but we are talking about the strait and a radical group threatening one attack on a ship. That is all it takes. It could be one guy in a cave, one mine, one drone. That is the issue. It only takes one. If
it were so easy to keep ships safe they would have already done it.