Originally Posted by
magiccarpet
There’s a lot less dependency on the Strait of Hormuz than there was 15 years ago. The UAE has a huge pipeline that runs from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah which bypasses the Strait. About 1/2 of all the UAE oil exported can be routed thru this pipeline. The UAE also recently completed their freight rail network which can run tank and container cars to Fujairah. Saudi Arabia can send their oil exports west to Jeddah. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar remain blocked - but Iran is by far hurt the most with the Strait closed. Iran will run out of breath before anyone and they’d likely see pressure from China to keep the Strait open.
Not saying that it’s no big deal, but it will not bring the global economy to a halt that’s for sure.
It seems almost daily that a new, sensational threat emerges from “Iran”, whoever that is. Whether it is credible remains to be seen but that may matter less than the economic risk calculation that those threats are causing. At some point, however, “Iran” will have to follow through or their limits of power will be exposed. Around that time perhaps some other global players might ask the question why, exactly, 1 “nation (?)” gets to decide who navigates the straight of Hormuz, especially if that “nation” isn’t exactly loved by all of its people. Long term this seems like a losing strategy, albeit with the ability to inflict heavy damage along the way.
bringing the topic back to 2026 AE’s…. It seems possible that the 2026 US election is the only real reason that “Iran” isn’t getting invaded yet. Nobody wants an invasion, but without boots on the ground the regime is likely to survive this narrowly-defined conflict and the threat to stability will continue to persist and the debate will continue as to whether “Iran” can be trusted with nuclear weapons (potentially. But only if they decide to use nuclear abilities for not simply civil purposes like they totally have been). AE for the search engine and to stay on topic