Originally Posted by
Turbosina
• This has already been raised, but in this current attempt to topple the Iranian regime, we've managed instead to replace an 86-year-old autocrat with his son (likely more hard-line than his father). We also killed his wife, at least one son, his mother, a sister, and likely more. So let's think about that for a moment. You're the new leader of Iran. Your #1 enemy just killed pretty much your entire extended family. How likely are you to behave more rationally than your father? Not bloody likely, I'd say.
Yes, not ideal at all. But it sounds like junior is in a coma, maybe not going to recover. So hopefully he might just be a virtual figurehead for the committee in charge while they figure out WTF to go from here.
Originally Posted by
Turbosina
I only see three ways this goes:
1) Iraq, but worse. A fruitless attempt to take and hold significant ground in Iran, sparking off a conflict with no end in sight and (realistically) no potential for an American victory.
Agree, worst case. But I'm cautiously optimistic that congress will put their feet down at that point, and reclaim the War Powers which they've abdicated (along with so many other powers).
Also tend to think that Trumps inner circle and family will talk him out of that, if he were to decide to go there.
But there is a fine line, we *might* be able to occupy Kharg Island and select beach-front real estate near the Strait with minimal BoG to extort their oil export economy and protect the rest of the world's imports. Maybe without getting into a quagmire. This is what I'd consider the realistic worst case... OIF style BoG is pretty unlikely.
Originally Posted by
Turbosina
2) Stalemate. We continue a relentless aerial campaign until we've done to urban Iran what Israel did to Gaza. That won't bring the Iranian regime down. It'll just turn one hundred percent of the population against us. Kill enough civilians, especially kids in schoolhouses, and even the most anti-government folks in Iran will hate us more than they hate Khamenei and his ilk. And then we'll have another 9/11, just maybe with drones instead of hijacked airliners.
Unlikely I thik. We are being *extremely* selective about targeting, avoiding not only civilians but critical civil and economic infrastructure. Last analysis I saw indicates that the Iranian Man on the Street blames the regime for this mess, not the US (yet). Yes there are always Baby Milk Factories, but as long as 99% of the civil population doesn't have any first-hand experience they might not fall in behind the regime. The military leaders running this grew up learning hard lessons from their predecessors.
Originally Posted by
Turbosina
3) POTUS declares "victory" and moves on to the next distraction. Hopefully not involving a nuclear-armed state.
Could be. Regime would then have a very strong incentive to lay off the SoH... that might even be explicitly negotiated through cutouts on the DL.
Originally Posted by
Turbosina
To be clear: I detest the Iranian regime with all of my being. (It's personal, for me.) And I supported the June 2025 strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. I'd love to see this regime gone.
Same. I was not in favor of this, but IL was going in last year regardless, and we had the tools to really get after the problem so it made sense to follow through in 2025.
Originally Posted by
Turbosina
But this war is not going to topple the mullahs. Only the Iranian people themselves can do that.
True, and I'm not optimistic.... IRGC fanatics are deeply embedded in all aspects of society, economy, and government. It's basically like the old KGB... regime falls and what do you get? Putin.
Originally Posted by
Turbosina
All we are doing is creating even more instability in a region that was already waiting to blow.
Actually many other gulf nations, especially the GCC, will consider the region to be more stable after this, since IR will have lost all of their air, sea, and most of their TBM capability. IR will almost certainty stay home and lick their wounds for a long time to come, even if their attitude hasn't been adjusted one bit. Especially considering most of their malign influence proxies have already been neutered by IL. I wouldn't have advocated for it, but now that the bandaid is ripped off, it might be better in the long run.
One thing I can say is that IR's intentions towards us couldn't have gotten any worse, they had been systematically killing Americans for a couple decades.