Originally Posted by
Lowslung
There are a whole lot of analysts who are scratching their heads right now at the way markets are reacting. I claim no expertise in commodities, but I imagine things will change rather quickly when reality sets in. Again, sincerely hope I’m wrong.
Most people aren't aware that the lack of stability in the ME (almost all Iran induced in 2026) is already baked into big-picture oil pricing and has been for decades.
If some folks believe (I have serious reservations) that this event will be over and stability will prevail within a relatively short time frame, that would tend to drive oil prices down. Ultimately lower than historical norms.
There are some fringe benefits to this conflict, if it can pulled off successfully.