Originally Posted by
Turbosina
Never in human history has an aerial war alone resulted in the destruction of a regime. The only ways to actually destroy the current Iranian government would be a full scale ground invasion (and a quagmire that would make Iraq look pleasant)
Due to the deep integration of the IRGC into basically everything in Iran, it will be hard to get a new regime that's not similar to the old one without invasion/occupation.
Best we can likely hope for is regime 2.0 with an enlightened sense of self-interest/preservation which chooses to be more cooperative.
But with that said it's by no means an absolute that you can't force a regime change with air power, that would be situationally dependent. What you clearly can't do without major BoG is take over a country, install your own government, and attempt nation-building. Curt Lemay was mostly wrong, but that's not an absolute.
Originally Posted by
Turbosina
or we launch a nuclear first strike, with the very real possibility of igniting World War 3.
1. That's not happening (if it did happen, it would be IL not us).
2. It would not start WW-III. RU isn't going to commit national MAD suicide just to lash out in support of IR. RU knows they would absolutely lose MAD, and given the state of their military there's no assurance that the US would also lose to anywhere near the same degree. MAD itself is in serious doubt right now, looking kind of one-sided. Which isn't a big deal because neither party has any need to go there.
3. PRC is not a nuclear super-power. They also would not commit national suicide just to lash out in defense of IR.
Nukes used against IR is actually a real possibility at some point given IL's situation (unless the IR nuclear program goes away for good). But everybody knows that and is prepared for the possibility (while also hoping it doesn't come to that). If it happens it will have a chilling effect on geopolitics and likely global economies... we'll be living in a new reality, and nobody is certain what that looks like.
But IR isn't rushing head-long into nuclear oblivion... there's a reason they slow-roll their nuclear program, it's because they don't want to spook IL by getting to close, or progressing too fast. They might of course miscalculate though. It is also unfortunately possible given their fundamentalism and certain specific tenants of Shia Islam (return of the 12th Imam) that a sufficiently fundamental leader, given sufficient authority, might willingly embrace armageddon to facilitate the projected end of days. Or at least willing take the chance. Inshallah.