Originally Posted by
HooverPilot
why do we have to give a **** about IL? Why are we in a non-negotiable bond with them? I wish we would renegotiate.
Beacuse...
1) Oil
2) IL has been the only consistently reliable partner we have in the region.
Yes there's holocaust PTSD and voter sympathy at home (more so in the past) but the real reason is and always has been the need to ensure stability of the oil supply. No, it's not about making a few oil company execs rich, it's about preserving the US and global economies. There's no alternate reality where oil is not a fundamental underpinning of that.
With that said, in 2026 several ME states are actually now quite stable and relatively reliable. So it might be possible to disengage from IL and rely on other regional partners. Which would be worse than useless if IL then gets backed into a corner and resorts to nukes....
We also benefit from having IL close because then we have some insight and influence on *their* behavior.