Originally Posted by
furloughfuntime
The situation prior to the current conflict was not significantly different than the situation 10 years ago. The stockpile in 2016 was sufficient to create 8-10 bombs. They were as close then as they were prior to the current conflict.
As I said they *chose* not to sprint to the finish line.
Originally Posted by
furloughfuntime
The difference seems to be that Netanyahu was able to puppet Trump into the current conflict for reasons that are unclear.
I've said several times I don't know what Trump's motive was, but I can guess at several, mostly not good. But if Bibi said "It's go time, either help or we go it alone the hard way", then Trump did the right thing.
Presumably we'll have more insight in a decade when some insider writes a book.
Originally Posted by
furloughfuntime
The notion that military action had to be taken immediately due to the imminence of their nuclear threat is a false dichotomy between a war now or an Iranian nuke. There were other, better options and outcomes possible for US interests, but this war was certainly the best outcome for the Israeli regime.
This false dichotomy is the only way this conflict can be justified and why you insist on repeating this tired talking point. It's also an argument Israel has been making for the last 20 years. Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf? At some point we have to view the Israelis with the same skepticism as the Iranians.
I never said any such thing, or justified any such thing. I have said, multiple times, that I don't think this was a good idea. I've just been speculating on how it all might play out.
I've also said i don't trust IL.
Originally Posted by
furloughfuntime
I do find it interesting that you think the Iranians can be trusted when they assert their capabilities, but cannot be trusted to uphold their commitments. Your argument depends on the notion that the Iranians categorically cannot be trusted or taken seriously, but also we have to trust their threats completely and treat them literally.
I never said any such thing. It is true that IL would most likely err on the side of caution, and takes IR literally. IR knows as much, which is why they haven't to date sprinted to the finish.
Originally Posted by
furloughfuntime
At the same time, you have no problem handwaving away the genocidal threat of the president as hardball negotiating 5-d chess, but then clutch your pearls because the Iranians have chanted "death to America." We have no moral authority here because this administration has chosen to stoop to their level.
I never said any such thing. That's exactly the reason I don't like Trump, because he runs his mouth in ways that no president should.
Originally Posted by
furloughfuntime
In case you didn't know, North Korea also has rallies where they chant death to America, and have been doing so for longer than 47 years. They also have nukes. They have yet to deploy those nukes.
Apples to oranges. They are objectively quite a different animal. Their system is all about worship of the Dear Leader and absolute control of everything. their elites want to enjoy power, wealth, and privilege... everything they do is intended to secure that, which due to their inherent paranoia includes trying to scare us out of invading (again, paranoia even though we don't really have a motive to invade).
Originally Posted by
furloughfuntime
The Iranian regime faces a similar calculus, and given the complete lack of evidence that the Iranians were gearing up to produce a nuke imminently, it's pretty clear that the whole argument for this war depends on tired talking points. Even if they were weeks away from a nuke, there would be no rational basis for the Iranians to deploy a nuke preemptively. Like the North Koreans, they might talk tough and shout death to Israel/America, but any authoritarian regime is concerned first and foremost with perpetuating their own rule.
There's a grain of truth in your misrepresentations. Many of the Mullahs have similar motives to DPRK.
But in the process of their revolution they created a *very* dedicated fundamentalist wing which is now deeply integrated into well everything. Unfortunately some of their specific religious beliefs align quite well with fiery apocalypse. The mullahs created a monster, which they know have to appease, and might overthrow them if they seem to lack purity.
DPRK doesn't have that divide, it's all about Junior.