Originally Posted by
ShyGuy
Iran doesn’t owe you jack. In the same way Russia or China don’t owe you anything either. Wanna know why Russia, Moscow, Putin were never bombed when they started the Ukraine war 3 yrs ago? Simple. They have nukes.
True.
Originally Posted by
ShyGuy
If you are Iran, the key takeaway from June 2025 and Feb28-present is that you need nukes. Then they’ll be treated like a Russia or China.
RU, yes. Also DPRK.
PRC gets treated with respect for other reasons, more like the US. Vast economic footprint, and also very difficult to mess with conventionally. They actually don't have that many nukes (yet). They also mostly behave according to international norms, and don't invade people (yet).
Originally Posted by
ShyGuy
I’d bet Iran goes nuclear inside of 10 yrs and there ain’t a thing you can do about it. Maybe then we can have forced peace much like Pakistan and India have now. I mean, 1998-2026 has been far better for India Pakistan than it was 1947-1998.
This is not true. Unless we chose to just let them do it, and also unfreeze assets and remove sanctions so they can pay for it and import the tech they need.
We have already taken away a lot of their toys and infrastructure, including the relevant industrial base. They do not just snap right back to their pre-war condition the day after.
And even if *we* let them, IL would not... backed into a corner they'd just use nukes to prevent IR from going there.
PK and IN is apples to oranges... they have nukes as *deterrence* because they share a border and are historically prone to conflict. The balance works. IL and IR is not a balance of power thing because neither can invade the other. It's simply an issue because one of them has promised to eradicate the other... MAD only works if both sides plausibly wants nukes only as deterrence, not offensive weapons, and can reasonably be trusted to behave in a certain manner.