Originally Posted by
Cyio
It would seem, at least as things stand now, that the kinetic phase of this is mostly over, at least in terms of large uses of our stockpile. I would argue we have been resupplying during all of these pauses, and we have been pushing manufacturers to up production. I am not saying you are wrong per se, just that there are varying levels of right. I also think we have shown that for at least the weapons China and Russia have given Iran, they are not an issue for us. I don't want another long-term war either, but I still feel more good has come of this than bad, at least for now.
Keep in mind, this has been something that has been discussed and debated on for 50 years, and finally, someone is doing something about it, besides sending pallets of cash. Our partners in the Middle East, not just Israel, seem very happy that we went in and took care of this problem, as Iran is just as much of a pain in the backside for them as it is for anyone else. The only thing that I don't think we will get in the short term, sadly, is a regime change away from the IRGC or the clerics. Perhaps that happens down the road, but I think Trump is looking for an exit path that will clear the dust (pun intended) and get us out.
Just a couple thoughts on the bolded points:
1. I just don’t see ANY good so far. Regime still stands, nuclear can maybe kicked down the road (after it was already completely obliterated 6 months ago), and we’re on the precipice of a global energy crisis.
2. The gulf states have had tens of billions of dollars of energy infrastructure destroyed, and now they’re looking for a bailout from the US taxpayer which Bessent has said is likely.
3. Yes, he’s been looking for an exit strategy since a week from the start when it was clear it wasn’t an easy in and out like Venezuela. He doesn’t have one because the plan for the “Iranian people to rise up”, with zero organized opposition against an entrenched IRGC was half baked, and that’s being generous. The problem is he has NO exit strategy. The strait is still effectively closed because all it takes from Iran is a few thousand dollar drones a day lobbed from anywhere inside a mountainous area the size of New Jersey.