Originally Posted by
Extenda
Just a couple thoughts on the bolded points:
1. I just don’t see ANY good so far. Regime still stands, nuclear can maybe kicked down the road (after it was already completely obliterated 6 months ago), and we’re on the precipice of a global energy crisis.
No good so far, at least to the extent that we reap the benefit.
But given the scale of destruction of IR's tools for malign behavior and influence, there is bound to be some positive effects for regional stability after the dust settles. Whether that juice will be worth the squeeze is one for the historians.
Originally Posted by
Extenda
2. The gulf states have had tens of billions of dollars of energy infrastructure destroyed, and now they’re looking for a bailout from the US taxpayer which Bessent has said is likely.
We routinely spend more than on allies and partners. If that's what it takes to smooth things over, that's the cost of doing business.
Originally Posted by
Extenda
3. Yes, he’s been looking for an exit strategy since a week from the start when it was clear it wasn’t an easy in and out like Venezuela. He doesn’t have one because the plan for the “Iranian people to rise up”, with zero organized opposition against an entrenched IRGC was half baked, and that’s being generous. The problem is he has NO exit strategy.
I can't wait for the Tell-All books, going to be really interesting to see what exactly he thought would be the off ramp, and who sold him on it. But I do know who did *not* lead him on with unrealistic expectations: Dan Caine.
Originally Posted by
Extenda
J
The strait is still effectively closed because all it takes from Iran is a few thousand dollar drones a day lobbed from anywhere inside a mountainous area the size of New Jersey.
Short term bad news.
But long term that won't hold up... closing the strait with cheap asymmetric weapons relies on the old status quo for how commerce flows through. If this drags on, commerce will adapt (with government intervention if necessary).