Originally Posted by
Lowslung
Fangs, while I don’t agree with all of your positions, you’re a generally reasonable and intelligent person. Explain this one to me. I understand that China gets far more oil from gulf states than just about anyone else. What I don’t understand is how turning off X amount of global supply hurts them more than us. The fact that it’s a global market has been discussed ad nauseam. Price and supply issues hit us both. Xi has the dictator’s luxury of being able to ignore public opinion (at least for a while), while the American public will very quickly tire of energy shortages, even if there were a strategic benefit to the country. I just don’t see how this play works out in our favor.
GDP per capita in the US is over $85,000. GDP per capita in China is less than $14,000. Just as increased costs of basic items in the US hurt the poor more than they do the rich, increased prices of basic items (which fuel is) takes a larger bite out of China’s discretionary income than it does that of the US.
Similarly, while the US imports a large percentage of fruits and vegetables - predominately from Mexico - it is overall a big exporter of corn, wheat, and other grains. China struggles to be self sufficient in food, and greatly depends on imports of fertilizer from the Middle East and from Russia. Fertilizer, made from natural gas, is also a commodity, and approximately 25% of the worlds supply comes from the Middle East. Either elevated prices or even merely less availability, will have a more profound effect on China than on us.
in fact, a prolonged blockade of Hormuz by the USN might cause some serious questioning in China about just how badly they want to retake Taiwan.