Originally Posted by
Trip7
yup too many people staring at WTI/Brent futures and thinking that’s all there is to the oil market.
Big picture this crisis will become a reality to Americans when critical shortages and ration starts for jet fuel and diesel in the May to June timeframe. Jet fuel and Diesel are middle distillates. Medium to heavy sour crude is the type of input needed into a refinery that yields higher output of these types of fuel. And this is the exact type of fuel stuck in the Hormuz.
The world has adequate amounts of gasoline with jet fuel and diesel critically short. Here in the states the critical shortages of jet fuel will start in May on the West Coast with rationing spreading to local outages. On the East Coast record exports to Europe will drain inventories and also result in rationing and localized outages. Mass flight cancellations and parking of jets likely. The Trump administration, sensing the urgency of the situation, is currently considering export ban of refined products.
Then in June comes critical diesel shortages affecting the transport of food and product. Get ready to pay 40-100% higher at the grocery store.
Even more dire, it’ll likely take 18+ months to resolve this crisis
And the kicker is that this is no longer a theoretical issue. Shortages WILL happen at this point. The last tankers carrying Persian gulf oil have discharged their cargo & as you said, it’ll take months to get everything back to normal. That’s AFTER hostilities end and the gulf is fully opened. Get ready to add bailouts to the transportation industry, agriculture, and Middle East gulf states to the already staggering costs of this war.