Originally Posted by
Trip7
Pentagon estimates at least 6 months to claim the Strait of Hormuz from mines. ZERO chance oil is in the $70s in June or July. ZERO CHANCE. Oil and it's Refined Products will remain higher for the foreseeable future
Oil hits $150 this summer. $200 possibly by year end
Do you sources try and peg demand. How can anyone call a price without providing demand estimates.
Seems like just saying in February we had 100m barrels a day of demand @$50 a barrel and the straight pinched off 20m bpd so the 20% shortage will drive prices to $200.
Have your sources tried to estimate capacity creep from other producers? Or tried to establish the Iraq Saudi and UAE pipelines by passing the straight.
If someone wants to call $200 a barrel they should be claiming a demand rate at that price point.
If airlines jack prices 20% and trim schedules 10% that trims demand for oil.
Boat and RV usage can go to 50% utilization from last summer.
I am not saying it won’t go to $200, but the leg work of claiming that is provided with demand reductions not able to outpace supply disruptions.
BTW winter usually has demand breaks from summer so they would already need to explain the inversion in price point if they’re saying $150 July and $200 December.
Producers/refiners know that and historically trim to keep a price point during winter. How did they meet demand @150 for summer but couldn’t for winter and seasonal demand reduction drove it to up to $200? July to December price increase would need a new fundamental reason.