I still believe JB can restructure the debt in Chapter 11, but I find myself more thinking about.... "then what"?

If JB went thru bankruptcy - which is a borderline guarantee if oil doesn't moderate down soon - then they would really just be restructuring the 2024 debt raise considering a lot of debt is tied to aircraft.

But "then what"? The airline comes out the other side with lower costs, probably fewer airplanes, maybe less debt - in exchange for equity - but the same structural issues: No where to grow. In an increasingly segmented industry of those who have scale and those who never will, it is hard to compete. I know people like to hate on this management team, but there are real issues of scale in our business. There are only so many people who make 100K+ in NY/New England/FLL who can get the credit card. At some point the growth in loyalty has to plateau. Then what?

I think the play is merge or die, but I'm becoming evermore pessimistic that there is a merger ahead for this company. I just don't see how even with a Chap 11 they can keep growing the enterprise in a fashion that also allows them to grow earnings.