Originally Posted by
Flyby1206
Bingo. Ch11 is helpful, but let’s be clear… it is helpful because that makes us a more attractive merger target (hopefully) without as much debt and non-core assets.
The problem of “then what” has been apparent since we started the “East coast leisure airline” mantra. We have nowhere to grow long term. No scale. No dominant position in any key city (maybe FLL changes that equation? I’m neutral on that).
I do think a merger will happen for us, but the longer this drags on the more I wonder if it will be the type of merger we don’t really want. Something like an F9/B6 merger where we shuffle the deck chairs for a few years and are back in the same position.
We still have time, mid-2027 would likely be when we turn into a pumpkin for this administration to oversee the merger. We are along for the ride at this point.
Thats scary but I agree with you. United has quietly stepped away if they were ever truly interested and management is going to gather whatever scraps remain. The main issue I see is the Frontier model is only financially viable if the costs are low. Add JetBlues costs, and bad management, and the combined 8% of the domestic market is hardly competitive or viable. For reference, the big 4 are roughly 16-17% of the domestic market with Alaska being the outlier at around 6%. There are suggestions the Spirit customer coming to either airline could raise the percentage somewhat but will it be enough?