Originally Posted by
Flyby1206
Bingo. Ch11 is helpful, but let’s be clear… it is helpful because that makes us a more attractive merger target (hopefully) without as much debt and non-core assets.
The problem of “then what” has been apparent since we started the NK/JB merger failure. We have nowhere to grow long term. No scale. No dominant position in any key city (maybe FLL changes that equation? I’m neutral on that).
I do think a merger will happen for us, but the longer this drags on the more I wonder if it will be the type of merger we don’t really want. Something like an F9/B6 merger where we shuffle the deck chairs for a few years and are back in the same position.
We still have time, mid-2027 would likely be when we turn into a pumpkin for this administration to oversee the merger. We are along for the ride at this point.
CH11 doesn't make Jetblue a "more attractive merger target" any more than either of the two Spirit CH11 made it more attractive.
Most of Jetblue's $8.5B in debt is secured, which means its tied to the planes. If Jetblue wants to lower their debt, its going to have to give back a lot of planes. They don't just get to write it off and keep the assets. I can't imagine anyone right now that would want to take on all that debt. Jetblue has the highest debt compared to its market share and RPMs of any other airline.
If no one wanted Spirit and their $2B in debt then I can't imagine anyone wanting to take on Jetblue and its $8.5B in debt (and growing). No chance F9 can borrow enough money to buy B6. They are already have a high risk credit rating and Jetblue's credit rating is deep junk.
No administration is going to block any airline mergers for a while after what happened with Spirit, but until someone tries to buy Jetblue it doesn't matter.