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Flyby1206
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Originally Posted by benzoate
I don’t see a major carrier acquiring JetBlue outright. As Scott Kirby has indicated, the interest appears to be in assets rather than the airline as a whole. If no asset transaction materializes, then Chapter 11 becomes an increasingly logical possibility, which would almost certainly result in a significantly smaller airline emerging on the other side.



What happens after that is less clear. Could JetBlue survive as a smaller niche carrier? Possibly. At that point, the larger legacy airlines would have to decide whether aggressively forcing the airline out of the market is worth the effort, or whether allowing a smaller niche competitor to exist is acceptable.



As this situation evolves, employees should also realistically expect pressure on pay, benefits, and work rules. The assumption that Chapter 11 remains far off simply because the company still has assets and cash available doesn’t fully hold up in my view. Eventually, if management and lenders conclude the losses are structural and the bleeding will not stop, they stop financing the decline rather than allowing it to continue indefinitely.
Yes even as a small niche carrier we would be struggling long term without any real prospects for growth and spreading costs over a larger number of ASMs. The small niche carrier only works if you have a defensible and dominant market share in a large metro area. I’m not sure if FLL would be enough even if we can make it happen there.

The oft mentioned AA bankruptcy where they had lots of cash but bad trajectory would be the blueprint for a JB Ch11 filing in my mind. Waiting until all the furniture has been burned is a bad idea.
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