Originally Posted by
Excargodog
https://www.fapa.aero/pilot-hiring-history
2021 total major hiring was ~ 5400
2022 ~ 13,100
2023 ~ 12,200
2024 ~ 4800
2025 will end up ~ 4300 or so.
Meanwhile, retirements have just about peaked:
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Now there is probably a little latent demand because of growth aircraft on order, but there are also a few thousand people waiting for class dates. But we’ve just come through the most rapid hiring in the majors in about a quarter century. Don’t make the mistake of thinking that’s the norm.
And regional hiring depends - to a very large extent - on that major hiring, since few of the major airlines don’t have maxed out scope clauses.
That UPS bump is an old APC error. Its a fairly smooth curve.