“Geoff Bennett: Lessons learned. I mean, has the fact that America is now this major energy producer, as you point out, has that fundamentally changed the country's vulnerability to global conflicts?

Daniel Yergin: I think it's not changed it, because, at the end of the day, it's one global oil market, but it's given us insulation and it's made the United States such a dominant player that we were not before. So that's such a dramatic change from previous crises.

Geoff Bennett: As we've covered on this program, a swift reopening of the strait does not necessarily mean a swift return to normal.

At day 100, how much longer do you estimate recovery would take if the strait reopened tomorrow?

Daniel Yergin: Well, I think you use the right word. It's not going to be a swift recovery. We estimate at S&P that it would take as much as six months to get back to 80 percent of where we were before. You got to get tankers out of the gulf. You got to get new tankers in.



“Geoff Bennett: What are you watching for as this progresses?

Daniel Yergin: I'm watching what happens with inventories is I think the number one thing. And, obviously, what is the state of the negotiation? Is there a deal or not a deal? And it keeps coming into focus and then going out again.

And Iran is really determined, I think, not to give up control of the strait. They want to turn what was an open, free navigation international waterway into an Iranian canal. And that's not acceptable to the Arab producers and it's certainly not acceptable for the world economy.