I went to the Reserves via normal (not Force Shaping) Palace Chase last September. At that time, the PC office told me that if I had less than 12 months left of my commitment, I was more or less guaranteed to be approved. The rationale was that I could 7 day opt out of any assignment they tried to give me, so they may as well use my training and experience in the Reserves. I don't know if that's still the mindset or not, but was last year, FWIW.