I believe that there are low time pilots that can out fly higher time pilots any day - I don't think that is in doubt at all. It is, however, the exception rather than the rule. They are few and far between. Experience does matter for the other 99%...and even the low time guys, when the *stuff* hits the turbofan, experience is going to win out over them every time. You can be a poor stick and still manage to do things at 15,000 hours that no 300 hour pilot could dream of. Experience and wisdom do count for a lot. But again, there are exceptions to every rule.
I do think the times of low timers getting hired is at least over for the next year.
I don't think I would want to be an IOE CA. I'm not sure my nerves could handle it!