Yes, and the net change in those seats with a "-1" will be a "negative 1" in the end.

Total # Currently in Seat -1 = (Total # Current in Seat + # Bidding/Flushed Into the Seat) - (# Voluntarily Bidding to Leave the Seat + # Forced Excessed from the Seat)

This is what people are calling the "bump and flush".

The "Bump" is guys being bumped down to another seat (i.e. Widebody to Narrowbody or MEM to ANC)....and the "flush" is those at the very bottom getting "flushed" down further.

A big Bump and Flush Bid, like 08-03, is very efficient in realigning seniority in one fell swoop; however, the associated training cycles and move packages it generates were proven to be huge.

My guess is this Excess Bid will be smaller and more controlled. In fact, it could consist of many smaller iterations (i.e. numerous excess bids) --- not just one big "bump and flush".

Mgt has gone on record stating the MEM Bus is where we are currently overmanned the most (...then MEM MD-11) and that all of the other domiciles and acft are properly manned, except HKG FO.

I think it is important to note there are also slightly less than 40 727 FOs who are junior to about 90 727 SOs, which generates POP for those 90 SOs.

Given they are looking at every nickel, I think realigning this part of the 727 manning will be another objective of the upcoming Feb/Mar Excess bid (...and this could be done without tipping over the ANC FO applecart)

My current guess is ANC won't have a "-1" posted, but the 777 will.

Ultimately, a "-1" posted with the 777 may have little affect on the Capt seats since it went relatively senior, but would easily affect the much more junior FO seats. It won't cost the company $$ to "mess around" with this manning, since very few folks have gone to training and won't for another 4-5 months.

(What will the typical MEM Airbus/MD-11 Capt or FO being faced with an excess do? Bid MD-11 to ANC first....or 777 to MEM??? In the last bid they didn't have another MEM based widebody option --- now they do. If they all flock to ANC the bid could be cancelled again or a "-1" placed in ANC too.)

I think the company would like to avoid a "-1" on the 757 and will allow that jet to grow, because that training letter runs out in Nov anyway --- and putting guys bumped down from widebody slots to narrowbody slots into the 757 (vs the 727) makes long-term "training-sense" anyway. (If we weren't faced with our current problems, wouldn't the 727 be facing another excess bid in the next few years anyway?)

Generally speaking I think the company will take a piecemeal, iterative approach to the realignment --- not try to fix it all in one big bid.

This of course is all conjecture on my part---- no inside knowledge at all.

...though, I have logged alot of nights in Holiday Inns the past year.