The real money to be gained in an excess is pushing down Airbus FOs and ANC FOs to 727 SO.

In an excess the company is going to have to buy some houses in ANC. In a furlough they don't they have to buy the houses.

So, if the company commits to Asia SIBA and cutting 727 flying, a furlough of up to 300 could happen without an excess bid. No house buying. Lots of Airbus FO's still available for SIBA.