Thread: Future Outlook?
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Old 02-26-2009 | 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by ThomasH
...I will be graduating from University of California, San Diego this summer with a aerospace engineering degree.
First, I'm not a pilot yet, so I can't help you there.

Second, congratulations on the B.S.! Is that Aerospace Science Engineering, or Aeronautical Engineering? Also, which branch: Aerodynamics, Structures, Propulsion, Avionics or Orbital Mechanics/Satellite Systems?

Times have really changed. Back when I thought I wanted a degree in Aerodynamics, the only way I could have stayed in California, was to attend San Jose State University and at that time, their Aerospace Science department was brand new. San Diego, would have been a better pick for sure, weather wise - I take it that you enjoyed the weather very much.


Originally Posted by ThomasH
Now I've always wanted to work my way to become a major airline pilot, and am now at the crossroads of choosing the rest of my life, flight school, or grad school.
I cannot speak as a pilot as I stated above. However, I remember being in a very similar position as you are right now. Personally, given what I know about how the real-world works after life in college, I will say that doing some Graduate work right now, especially given your very young age, will pay you dividends in the future. The kind of dividends that you are not able to see, or fully understand right now from your perspective - all because of your age and because you have probably not spent enough time working for an established company.

Having said that, I will also say this: Your future is extremely bright and don't allow anyone to tell you different. You can do or become anything you want, especially here in the United States of America. [end of pep talk]

The realities of our nation's economy are about to undergo some drastic change. We are on the crux of an epic paradigm shift in the way we drive our economy. The current economic crisis has been brewing since the early 1980's for a number of different reasons and that is what has triggered the economic paradigm shift that most people don't even realize is already underway.

That paradigm shift will be a shot in the arm to General Aviation and Commercial Aviation sectors alike and will therefore require more pilots than our nation has ever had a need for and you could be sitting at the launching point of that new wave of hiring - yet to begin.

Now, we've got a whole lot of policy, structural, monetary and fiscal mess to clean-up before the "next wave" begins, but rest assured that wave will include at its core, certain kinds of brand new technologies that will be used as tools to re-engineer our economy for the 21st century and beyond. That restructuring of our economy will provide the climate and the need for even greater commercial aviation operations, world wide and especially here at home, to support the new logistical and demographic changes that will come as a direct result. But, it won't all be passenger 121 operations. A lot of the new growth will be 135 cargo operations as that will be part of the backbone for the new economic paradigm, yet to come. So, while there will be plenty of 121, you might start looking into the way 135's operate as well.

Ok, so that's the future economic reality that we have not yet seen, so to speak. So, don't be afraid of the future, simply because you want to be an airline pilot and because you base that fear on what you see around you today. Things are going to change and when they do, you need to be prepared.

Also, think International as well. The U.S. is not the only country that will be impacted by the paradigm shift to come economically, you can see the shift in other countries as well. Just take a closer look at Dubai, as just one example. As far as being an American Commercial Airline Pilot is concerned, what's going on in Dubai right now is merely one example of why more pilots will be needed in the future. As nations begin to shift their economies drastically, they will become better trading partners for a myriad of different reasons.

But, that's not the part you care about. The part you care about is the fact that as they begin to scale their economies, they begin to do more business here in the U.S.. That will require new flight routes, new aircraft orders and new flight crews for those countries that do not have established airlines themselves. This is but one of the many reasons why more airlines will begin to come online and why more pilots will be needed.

You can see this particular phase in the shift happening already, as you now have countries like Dubai, doing marketing and advertising here in the U.S. for non-stop air travel from either coast, directly to Dubai. As developing countries begin to come online and increasingly become stronger trading partners with the U.S., their demographic and logistical reality will change/expand requiring them to operate more domestic AND international flight operations and it is the international component that will create a void/vacuum here in the U.S. that will need to be filled.

All of this will mostly be predicated on the new U.S. global economic driver, yet to come. So, as you think locally about your own airline career and what will potentially drive it, you at the same time must think globally about the potential drivers that can have an impact on your career here at home.

And, this is just one reason why the airline industry here in the U.S. will have a re-birth. It is not over. It is just beginning! As a direct consequence of all this, you can expect an even bigger boom to come in the Fractional Ownership game with business models such as the one NetJets or FlightOptions has right now. So, does your career have to be in the Boeing 787, or the Airbus A380. Or, can you get along making nice six figures flying the new G-650, or the coming Lineage 1000 [or, something in that vein].


Originally Posted by ThomasH
I am pretty scared that I will be in the hole after flight school with no one willing to hire.
Your future is bright, do not fear anything. Seriously, take the advice given here and work on the Masters. I cannot talk to you as a pilot, but I can talk to you from the position of understanding what happens "next" in our economy. I can tell you that the next positive economic wave is going to alter the demographics and logistics for how we live our lives. Not just here at home, but abroad. That shift in demographics and logistics will require more air travel, bottom line. Fear not - you have plenty of time and that's why your Masters Degree should look very good to you right about now. You should be licking your chops at the opportunity to get some graduate work under your belt.

Economic "drivers" are what you should be concerned about, here. At your age, you can afford to look beyond the present "crisis" and see the positive economic reality waiting to unfold. The "shift" is already underway, but these are like tectonic shifts and they won't happen overnight, so you have time to tuck some advanced study under your belt - take advantage of it.

You are a smart young man and you've already proven that much by obtaining a very difficult degree - not one that everybody can handle intellectually. So, you are probably able to split your time just like any law school student who works during the day while obtaining his law degree at night. Or, any doctor, who works during the day while attending medical school at night. Or, the inverse - school during the day and work at night. I did both for years and hold three (3) technical degrees today. So, it can be done.

Maybe school during the day, and flight training then flight instructing later in the day and/or on the weekends? A possibility, nonetheless? Maybe some of the flight instructors here can talk to you about how to arrange your schedule. But, that way you get your Masters and you get to establish some [not a lot right now] flight time under your belt as well.

I have a full-time career, but I'm getting ready to invert my schedule to do flight training and then "experience building" on a full-time basis, as I work part-time. I'm not going to have a commercial flight career, however. My goals are a little bit different than yours but we BOTH have to start training, build real experience/time and get our selves ready to fly high performance multi-engine jets. Except the ones you will eventually fly will be bigger than the one I fly.

Or, you can simply focus full-time on that Masters - which quite frankly, I am biased towards anyway having three degrees myself. Your youth is a massively huge asset to you right now - in more ways than you know. Take advantage of that youth by filling it with advanced study. You will not regret the time spent doing it, nor the effort it took. But, you will reap the rewards in ways you just can't see right now.

All the best - God's speed!

Last edited by RVSM Certified; 02-26-2009 at 04:31 PM.
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