Thread: Eagle News
View Single Post
Old 07-14-2009 | 10:14 AM
  #243  
eaglefly
Banned
 
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Likes: 0
Default

Originally Posted by SebastianDesoto
I guess my question would be this:

Could Eagle fly an ATR72 or E145 specifically on routes intended to feed AA, but then fly a E170/E190 on something like DFW to NAS?
As was stated, under the CURRENT arrangement, no.

IMO, either one of two things will happen. Either the APA will come to terms with the fact that AA needs a healthy and cost competitive feed system whcih will require a reasonable number of aircraft of the type which can be both competitive and profitable (76-seat mixed-class) which they now do not have and accept and negotiate scope to allow that -or- they will not, leaving AMR no alternative but to have to use the BK method to achieve a profitable and competitive model for both AA and regionals (that inlcudes AT LEAST one other regional besides Eagle).

Even in the unlikely event the current APA stand of either strangling Eagle out of existance or taking over the flying succeeds (I'm sure none of their pilots is THAT interested in flying RJ's to CMI, ICT or GRR), it would only lead to the same place due to AA unviability from an economic standpoint. That's liable to cost MORE AA jobs and result in virtually eliminated scope as opposed to rational negotiation leading to relaxed scope to allow larger aircraft that can compete and not lose money due to economic inefficiency.

It appears AMR is stalling for THEIR benefit to insure the competitive landscape is known and to insure all their ducks are lined up for quick and tidy trip in and out of BK. There IS one wild card that would change the dynamics of this conundrum and that is also another reason (I believe) AMR is stalling. It appears UAL could be in serious trouble by next summer cash wise as they've burned thru 1/3 of their pervious 3.8 billion in 7 months. It's going to be a long, cold and hard fall and winter revenue wise and UAL is running out of things to finance and credit to find. It may be a strategy of WHO is the first to liqiuidate.

I'll tell you this as harsh as it is, should ONE major liquidate (even if it survived to come out 1/4th of itself), it would blow the relief valve of excess capacity off the industry and allow the survivors to finally bring ticket prices in line with expenses, thus likely insuring survival and higher degree of prosperity for those that remain. Kinda like 5 people in a boat and one becomes sick and diseased. The others are starting to show the first symptoms and to save the group, the really sick one is tossed out of the boat for the benefit of the others.......not pretty. Many are convinced it wont happen, but if you'd described 9/11 on 9/10/01, it would have been preposterous to 99.99% of everyone you asked.

The question is who will it be ?

The clear front runner (now) for collapse is UAL followed by AA and U. So what we have with AMR might be a waiting game. Hypothetically, if say UAL were liquidated and say 75% of its operation and assets were auctioned off, AA would need to recall and hire to cover their chunk of the pie. UAL could remain strictly an International carrier with that segment sold off to a new buyer and UAL would still survive in name and legacy, but a lot of the domestic scraps would be picked apart by others whom appear ready to circle the wreckage at a moments notice.

At any rate, AA needs feed (and Eagle) as much as Eagle needs AA (and someone to feed), at least under the CURRENT arrangement. The current APA philosophy I'll call, "The Cyanide Diary" will only doom AA pilots to a worse scenario. Even now, many AA pilots are asking the APA what it means when they say, "ALL flying to be done by AA pilots" and the APA so far hasn't come up with a coherent answer other then falling in love with the idea, so their current scope "plan" is fairly rudderless.

In the meantime, AMR is using its friend and ally TIME to their advantage. When the time is right either by choice or the neccesity of outside forces they'll act.

Last edited by eaglefly; 07-14-2009 at 10:30 AM.
Reply