Originally Posted by
MAXforwardspeed
Well, scope is costing AMR a lot of money. My question is what is the price tag?
Would it be cheaper to do a flow up to AA? One list with AE stabled below AA? Or for APA to hold the line on scope?
The only thing I have learned about the airline industry is that I know nothing. As a AE pilot I would like to see APA hold the line on scope.
Your 3 options ;
1. New flowthru - AMR found the old one way too much of a headache and actually expensive with all the legal fees for the various arbitrations. They sighed relief when it died........their interest in a new one is about nil. If interest was there, they would have brought that up for discussion with the APA as a method of dealing with scope.
2. Any merging of the lists becomes unpredictable and sticky considering the new developments as a result of the U-AWA debacle. Additonally, Eagle's contract has provisions for use of the "Allegheny-Mohawk Labor Protective Provisions" in the even of no agreements with a non-ALPA carrier. DOH for Eagle pilots wouldn'y fly with AA pilots or the APA and a straight staple to the bottom wouldn't fly with Eagle ALPA or Eagle pilots, but the above is all moot. AMR cannot afford to have mainline labor control any aspect of regional labor costs unless they were competing against similar cost structures with the competition. The large RJ ops are done almost exclusively by regionals and it is they who will set the labor cost structure. Forget about any merger of AA and Eagle (or their seniority lists)......it's even LESS likely then #1..
3. If APA holds the line on current scope, AA's feed system will slowly wither and die as the smaller RJ's become either mechanically unviable or economically unviable (they're pretty much there now, economically). This will only weigh AA down with more debt as their revenue shrinks as a result of their feed shrinking. Competitors will convert former AA customers who can no longer get flexibility form AA with a weak (and getting weaker) feed system and that further weakens AA (and will cost AA jobs, especially pilots). Eventually, either AA will have to reinvent itself into a carrier that doesn't need feed (I can't see how) or its parent (AMR) will have to acquire the necessary scope changes it needs to maintain revenue with a healthy and competitive feed system. Of course some believe that thru whatever way (even magic), AMR can pull a rabbit out of a hat and thrive AND GROW without feed or with it all being done at the mainline level by all mainline employees with mainline costs against other regionals as they have the money to maintain an executive bonus plan.
It seems all 3 aren't realistic or likely options.
Option 4. is the reality IMO and that involves AMR gaining the necessary scope changes it needs for AA to thrive and compete by whatever means necessary. There are several options, the best being rational negotiation with both sides realistic about the situation. This would probably involve the allowance of mixed-class 76-seaters, but limits on size and mission based on current AA feeder size and competitive feeder sizes. Barring that, AMR would have little choice but to achieve that by another far less pleasant method, which it really doesn't want to do. My guess, is that should they have to do the unpleasant, AMR would make it worth their while by eliminating more scope provisions then likely would have been realized through negotiation rationalizing that decision to offset the cost and hassle of BK. If AMR HAS to go to BK, I think they're going to maximize the outcome of that for their best interest regardless of the criticism and that would likely mean larger aircraft and virtually no operational restrictions for feeders. This would anger many AA pilots and a bunch would proabably quit, but under this scenario, AA would likely shrink more in BK then out of it and I'm sure AMR would include PBS in AA's new post BK structure which would mean substantially less pilots needed, so they would probably need to trim a couple of thousand currently active pilots anyway, maybe more.
If you want to see the APA hold the line on scope, that's fine, but have you thought about your next employment move ?
It would mean that your tenure here would be as a career F/O until either Eagle shrunk enough that you'd be furloughed (having never made captain) or you quit for something better before that happens. You may in fact want to consider resignation sooner rather then later and get some PIC time somewhere in anything as 10,000 hours SIC time in an RJ won't get you anywhere and wont be doing your bank account much good either. At least if you really hope and expect the APA to maintain current AA scope.
If you understand the ramifications of your wishes, you can plan for your future better.