Originally Posted by
Wheels up
AMRs scope opener specifically allows ANY commuter operator and purposely does not make distinction between Eagle, Mesa, GoJet, or any other outsourcer. As far as the AA pilots go, it wouldn't make any difference whether their jobs were outsourced to GoJet or Eagle, so if AMR was to somehow extract 76 seat aircraft from AA, AA pilots might as well allow them to go to the cheapest bidder "to remain competitive." And Eagle is not "competitive" which I'm sure AMR will explain to you in a couple years.
It is well known AMR intends to bring in another feeder for whipsaw purposes against Eagle in the future, so nothing new there. Most everyone here is certainly well aware of that. However when (not, if) they contract out to another feeder, they'll have to set aside some of the money they have kept for themselves with Eagle for the outside carrier to be profitable in and of itself, which is money they normally would have kept. They also wont be able to get a way with charging staggering fees for equipment and services as the other carrier couldn't afford that and would have it's own, so more money lost there. On the labor front, it's getting to the point, most of Eagle's pilots are topping out at their scales and will not be making much income progress over the next few years, wheras many of the other formerly junior pilots at other regionals will continue to see their compensation get close to Eagle due to increasing longevity. Add it all up in 3-5 years and another carrier is likely to cost AMR MORE than Eagle.
The idea that it will be AA PILOTS that "allow" (read decide) what regionals acquire whatever percentage of new 76-seaters is more then unlikely. It will be hard enough for the APA to get what language they can out of scope and AMR granting the APA language that gives the APA approval of any pirticular regional carrier is laughable, especially if it is aimed against Eagle purely out of spiteful anger. Good luck with that, but I see no hope of it.
Originally Posted by
Wheels up
And to "keep the outsourced flying under the AMR umbrella" how much of MY paycheck are YOU willing to give Arpey for that? Sorry, no sale.
If it comes to that, a chapter 7 is ok too. There's way to much capacity in the system now and that might allow UAL's "competitive contract" to survive, while those nasty AA pilots hit the unemployment line.
It would seem somehow iconic that "American" Airlines go belly-up . . . . just like the present government of this republic is herding the nation to.
I don't think you have to worry about AA going Chapter 7 as AMR wont let that happen. Again, should emotion overtake the situation at AA, AMR will make successful and appropriate use of the reorganizational abilities of Chapter 11 to do just that.............RE-organize. They've seen others do it and have the luxury of seeing their mistakes and avoiding them . Analysts uniformly agree, one of UAL's principle mistakes was not going deep enough on cuts and AMR will definately go deeper than they would have had practicality won over emotion and the issues were negotiated instead of implimented.
Both Eagle and AA will be here 10 years from now, but different from where each is now. One question will be who the "new kid on the block" will be regional wise..................time will tell, but not much time.