Yes they are. The point I was making is that depending on where the author got his information from, the number of students obtaining a commercial pilots certificate could be skewed due to the large number of foreign students obtaining commercial pilot certificates here, and then leaving to go back home. Essentially, yes there were 5000 commercial license issued last year, but who were they issued to, and are they a viable segment of the working pilot group here in the U.S.? The FAA data simply states that one was issued, not were the applicant came from. It would be interesting to see how many American citizens got their commercial pilots license from 2008 that were actively seeking employment here in the US.

As for a pilot shortage, it would depend on a few things:

1. The state of the economy on a macro level
2. The amount of available training
3. The practicality for students to receive that training
4. The ability to finance said training
5. Upcoming legislative issues (y'all know what I'm talking about)
6. The requirement for airlines to hire due to expansion and not simply attrition

I'd say with relative confidence that Items 2-5 are very real factors. Items 1 and 6 are possible but unlikely since regionals are becoming the new nationals and are being force to hold their own more and more. There just aren't that many flight schools out there these days. Quite frankly if it weren't for foreign students then the skies would be ALOT quieter. Interesting item to note is that the Chinese are actively seeking flight school owners to develop, build and manage flight schools in China. I'd say in about 5-10 years, once China does develop its infrastructure, there will only be about 10-15 large flight schools left in this country. Flying has become far too expensive for a flight school to remain open just teaching pleasure and business pilots. There have been several flight schools that have closed down here in Addison over the past 2 years alone. Flight schools will have to adjust to train the zero to hero professional student pilots, or eventually have to close their doors. It won't happen overnight but one day well all wake up and say wonder when was the last time we saw a Cessna fly overhead. It would be sadly ironic if in 20-50 years we were sending OUR future pilots to China for thier training!