To the OP, I really found your post interesting and I appreciate the hard work you put into it. If I'm reading your numbers correctly, there really is a looming pilot shortage in the offing. While there is a large group waiting for recalls, there is not a large group waiting for new hire positions.

I instruct at my local airport (KLOU) and I can add just from my own experience there has been almost no student pilot training taking place over the last 18 months. I have worked with several students who have added an instrument rating or done BFR's, but there is very little new training taking place.

Having said that, I have noticed a bit more general activity in the last few months. While I don't believe the economy is in a "V" shaped recovery, many analysts do believe that. If that's the case and it continues into 2010, it's possible we could be right back where we were in 2007.