I think the reason the mins went so low last time is that over the last 8 years many candidates for flying jobs have gone elsewhere. More so now after the Buffalo crash than ever. The regionals would not of gone down to wet-ink certificate pilots if there was an ample supply. Age 65 and the economy just put the brakes on very suddenly and got us in this situation.

However, if the law stays the same as it is now, it will be very easy to find replacement pilots regardless of the pay since they can be ramped up quickly to meet basic commercial pilot certificates. I heard some folks getting on at an airline with a student pilot certificate on the back of their medicals (less than 1 year training, usually 4-8 months!)

If the ATP rule passes then hopefully it will eliminate some of the worst parts about this career. One is that they won't be able to find cheap replacements to career airline guys any more. The other is that the costs of entry will be so high that the supply-demand curves will naturally cause pay to increase. If pilots could become a scarce commodity then the airline with the best pay/work rules will get their pick of the litter. That's opposed to the current situation where its a buyers market and pilots have to compete for scarce jobs.

It could be years and years before we find out what really happens with the proposed duty limits and ATP regs. Short term probably nothing at all, but I think if business picks up and the supply of pilots is once again a scarcity, we might start seeing some improvement.