Based on your numbers, then sometime in 2019, all the furloughs will have replaced the retirees.

If you double the numbers, then we're still sometime in 2014. It is my opinion, nothing more, that a handful of carriers still have yet to go out of business or severely downsize in the next few years. They have to. The only way to raise prices across the board is to drop supply. Raising prices is the only way to regain some professional dignity in this profession.

I think the original poster's advice is sound, no material movement is going to happen for at least 3-4 years. This is what we've all been saying for over a year now anyway.