I'm sorry................these numbers are kind of a weak proposal to me. So at the moment we estimate there to be around 7000 "qualified" pilots on the street. And some say that by 2019 if everything stays exactly the same with demand, airline size and seating capacity there should be room in the system to absorb all of the furloughs. So that means someone is going to sit by the phone for 10 years? Phew........that's dedication. I guess I'm the only one that took out a few loans for training.

I can't speak for these guys myself but there are a ton of pilots that are in the military that may one day feel the need to fly for an air carrier. I would estimate (just a guess) that there may be 500-1000 guys that will come out in the next 10 years or so that are quite qualified. Plus, the relentless new students that have a dream. Heck I can't even estimate how many motivated students will be properly trained and qualified in ten years.

Anything can happen in ten years. Re-regulation; system-wide downsizing (we are seeing that now); another 9/11; Big mergers; new found technologies making the need for crews more efficient.

This is just some healthy APC debating. I'm not trying to ruin anyone's dream. I usually see the glass half-full. In this case, if you look at the "Big Picture" and not what you have heard from someone that has something to benefit by saying there will be a "shortage" you may see the glass half-empty. Back when I started flying in 99 all I kept hearing was how there was going to be this huge shortage of pilots in a few years. Sure there was for a little while and then they all got furloughed.

Just my opinion - please don't get offended.