Every year something like 8500 to 10,000 new commercial pilots are minted in the US. The military is also collectively producing something like 1500 new pilots per year. There is already a massive backlog of pilots who have been waiting to get recalled since 9-11. The human mass of experienced pilots is backing up big time.

It might be true that eventually retirements could reach 2000 per year but even at its height it is still woefully short of how many pilots that are building up daily awaiting a good job.

When hiring does resume someone is going to get hired but it does not really mean that anyone can count on it being them. It will be a drag out fist fight where seasoned regional captains have to stand in line behind space shuttle captains, the chief pilots son and blue angles.

2000 new hires per year after nearly two decades of waiting is not much at all. The bottom line is that it is still a long shot.

Skyhigh