Seems to me that the lease returns in 2012 are going to be the wild card in the "100 50 seaters to be parked" drama.

In 2010 - 20 ASA 200s will leave.
In 2010 - 15 Comair 200s will leave.
In 2010/11 - 22 Freedom 145s will leave.
In 2010/11 - 25 Chautauqua 145s will leave.
In 2011 - 6 Comair 200s will leave.

This leaves 2012 as the year for the balance of the 100. The numbers add up to 12 for 200s to leave in 2012. The "100" number can always change, but going based on that number RA said, it would be interesting to know when the next batch of leases over at Comair are up?

FACT: Skywest/ASA are locked into a long term deal

FACT: Pinnacle is locked into a long term deal with planes DL has on long term lease, courtesy of the NWA bankruptcy and are at the "floor" for their fleet of 200s at 124.

FACT: Mesaba, while wholly owned operates planes on long term leases held by DL (the same batch Pinnacle operates.) Just because the fleet is small, doesn't automatically make it a target.

The only way I see more 200s leaving the fleet is parking the Comair ones as their leases are up, or offering more 2 for 1 deals to the contract carriers to the further demise of Comair and Mesaba. If DL takes 200s away from Mesaba, they would just get reallocated to another operator. Therefore, unfortunately, I think the balance of the 200s to leave the fleet will come from Comair, dealing them yet another, unfortunate blow.