The 800lb Gorilla in the room is cabotage, and anything else can also happen. No one can predict the future (OK, maybe Nostradamus) so this type of analysis is basically wishful thinking and there is nothing wrong with being optimistic.
These retirement lists are useful to a point, but they hold everything except retirements constant and just extrapolate the current conditions into the future. Well how long has the aviation industry gone 10+ years without some major upheavals? In the last 10 years we have had:911, two wars, SARS, H1N1, a severe recession, bankruptcies, consolidation, a retirement age change, runaway fuel prices and the next 10 years will probably not be boring either.
I remember about two years ago when the fractionals were kicking butt a pilot posted a very good analysis of how the career compensation was better at Netjets then the majors - it was a good analysis with the exception that it extrapolated the current conditions out over 25-30 years which will usually not work in this industry.
Like I said, this type of analysis is somewhat useful but has some serious limitations. Plan for the worst and hope for the best and always, always have a fallback plan B not related to aviation.
Scoop