Originally Posted by geosynchronous

This has been an interesting discussion. I believe NoHandHold’s optimism is warranted; not just because of the retirement numbers posted, but because of economics, statistics, and demographics. Cases in point:

• Keynesian Economics- The GDP is rising mainly because of government intervention at the moment, but rising regardless of the formula.

• This will be a slow recovery. Hours worked need to be replaced to current job holders before employers begin hiring again; i.e. the average work week has been 33 hours over the last year (recall/furlough correlation).

• As companies slowly return back to profitability and growth, their travel requirements will expand.

• As the population increases, travel demand will increase.

• Nearly 8000 people turn 60 each day; if this linear, 8000+ people will be turning 65 each day in 2011. (Age 65 correlation)

• New Student pilot starts have been decreasing (-3350 from 2007 to 2008)

• Multi-class certificates are on the decline: i.e. pilots flying more high performance single engine aircraft.

• Aerospace and aviation typically follows Real GDP by 12-18 months.

• Beyond all of the doom and gloom, The FAA is still forecasting an annual 13% increase in travel demand.

It is feasible that all segments of the aviation industry will recover, albeit at a slow climb. Like someone else mentioned, all it takes is another 9/11 or a rogue nation to launch a nuke, or the next bout of politics or lack of integrity from Wall Street to throw this off kilter. But for the moment, the macro elements as they pertain to aviation signal resilience.