Originally Posted by
rickair7777
The retirement numbers do not appear unrealistic, there are a lot of old guys out there.
I can't see UAL or AMR recalling all of their furloughs in the foreseeable future. The prognosis is still uncertain in my book.
And the elephant in the room: Oil. Even if economical Jet A alternatives can be rapidly implemented, the damage to the greater economy caused by sky-high oil prices would kill a lot of demand and growth prospects.
In my mind the future comes down to two questions:
1. How much oil is really left?
2. How quickly can we employ alternative energy sources if we are on the downside of peak oil?
Answer those questions, and you know the future of the airlines.
Agreed, 100%. My gut feeling is that domestic air travel in the US is going to decline fairly rapidly over the next decade, and is not going to recover. International travel will shrink less, but is going to get way more expensive, further damaging overall airline viability.
Air travel will always be there, but even with alternative fuels, it's going to get way more expensive over our lifetimes.
Casual air travelers won't be able to afford it, and businesses will find ever improving tele-conferencing a cost effective alternative.
Of course, someone might discover the "magic fuel" that solves all of this, but I don't see ANYTHING like that right now. Ethanol, coal gassification, bio-diesel, etc. are all exotic niches that don't have the economics to support today's air travel demands.