Originally Posted by
Rascal
This sounds nice and dandy but it still does not give anyone better pay or job security. The shortage will be counteracted with regional replacing the majors. 10 years from now there won't be any "majors". What Republic is doing is just the beginning and something tells me that Delta management is watching very closely. The secret is out: pilots will fly 100 people for 30K a year! 10 years from now your Major job will be replaced by another regional...
Bingo. What the "retirements are coming" crowd needs to get through their thick skull is the
less than one-for-one job replacement at the majors. People need to understand that just looking at numbers and ASSUMING replacements are one-for-one is no less wishful thinking than the kid dropping six figure debt for a zero to hero "4 year adventure" program at Purdue. Retirement numbers will be gobbled up by capacity constriction and scope relaxation. Meaning that steady-state, there will be a bunch of people driving 100+ seaters for 70K top-out on the left seat, 30K on the right, and hardly any representation on the market of the 150K+ 20 days off mythical unicorn all these fools got into aviation for in the first place. So in that respect, the number of retirements don't matter one iota.
Just like boomers in other professions, theirs is an economic "up and fold the ladder" dynamic. It is present not just in aviation.