Originally Posted by
jayray
I'm just saying that all this media coverage of an improving economy is premature. Their coverage of the economy is the same as their coverage of aviation. Do you trust the media on anything related to aviation? The economy is probably a few years away from really recovering. The true unemployment rate right now is really around 17% and is still getting worse. Getting worse at a slower rate than last year but still getting worse. Do you really think the airline industry is going to improve this coming year? Do you think any pilots at Mesaba are going to move to bigger and better things anytime soon? And how many retirements are slated for the next few years here? I'm just saying, looking at it realistically things don't look bright for the immediate future. We could luck out and get some flying from someone else but that would just mitigate the furloughs from the losing of the Saabs. Unless something changes we will be down to 900 pilots in a year and then down to something like 700 the year after? This is not the sky is falling talk, it is just the way things are right now as I understand it.
Even looking at it from the best case scenario, Saab replacements, if any, will not be one for one. It will be replaced with larger RJs so at best 2 for 1. So, even if XJ gets replacement aircraft, pilot roster will go down considerably. 48 Saabs equals 480 pilots. Even if XJ gets 24 replacement aircraft in exchange for Saabs, that's 240 pilots versus 480 pilots. Cut in half. Replacement does not mean new orders. It means most likely reallocation from other DCIs when DAL reduces the number of DCIs flying for them. Without replacement aircraft, XJ will be down to 41 CRJ9s and 17 CRJ2s operating with around 600 pilots.