At some point in the future new pilots coming up though the civilian flight training system are simply going to run out of the available means (dual given) to secure the required hours for an ATP. There will not be enough students to go around for the number of people who will want to get ATPs.

OK, some new pilots will go through banner-towing, aerial photo, VFR charter, sight-seeing or whatever, but the majority will need a job as a CFI. They will need the students to to buy them the hours they need to get through the aviation career wasteland that exists between 250 to 1500 hours. If they teach pro-pilot trainees, that means EVERY single new CFI who wants (NEEDS) to get the ATP to go to the airlines is going to need to train about 7-10 people from Private to Comm-Inst. level. (about 120-180 hrs. dual given each).

Does anyone else see the problem with this training Ponzi-math? Even if you factor in the non-professional "Cirrus Owner" flight students (which are far less than in the past due to the high costs of flying as a hobby) there is just NO WAY there will be enough students to supply every new CFI with the hours needed for the ATP.

I think it's a great idea to require more experience of airline new-hires, but the reality will be that the traditional Ponzi scheme hour-building system will not have enough students at the bottom of the pyramid to supply the top.

The airlines are going to have to either pay some kind of financial aid to new pilots, or lobby congess to lower the 1500 hour minimum. There are good reasons so many airlines across the world use some form of ab-initio training, and those reasons are becoming more the case in the U.S. Will be interesting to see what happens.