Originally Posted by
rickair7777
They are not going to get rid of the contract carriers. If they do that, the wholly-owneds will unite in a heartbeat and demand massive compensation increases.
I suspect the ideal mix is about 1/3 wholly-owned and 2/3 contract. That way they get to keep some feed profit from the WO's as well as use them as an "accumulator" when they need to make sudden capacity cuts. But the whole purpose of regionals is whipsaw to get cheaper pilots...too much wholly-owned defeats that purpose.
I see your rationale but, I think the mix will be the other way around. DAL only needs one or two contract carriers to whipsaw W/O against each other. Plus DAL can always whipsaw one W/O against another, like they are doing right now with Compass against Mesaba and Comair. Compass is hiring while Mesaba and Comair is furloughing. All three W/O are on separate seniority list eventhough many of administrative functions of Compass are handled by Mesaba. This is the main reason why I do not think Comair, Compass and Mesaba will ever merge their seniority list. DAL already has the cheapest regional operation with Compass. Their most senior pilots have less than 2.7 year seniority and their work rules are subpar when compared to Mesaba, Comair, SkyWest/ASA. Compass has no infrastructure to speak of. You do the math.
Also, RA has repeatedly said that he intends to keep most of the flying inhouse in the future. DAL has also indicated that they want to reduce the number of DCIs down from 9 to 5 or less. My guess is Mesaba, Compass, Comair, and 2 contract DCI carriers like SkyWest/ASA will stay around after the dust settles in the next few years. It's very possible Chautauqua, and Mesa lift will go away. Pinnacle lift will probably see reduction in stages over the next 5 to 10 years if not sooner and gradually taken over by W/O or some routes not replaced at all.
Since CRJ9 numbers are maxed out acccording to some very vocal DAL junior guys on this forum, I doubt Pinnacle or anyone else for that matter getting any more CRJ9s in the next few years, unless DAL adds more mainline jets. E175s are maxed out also and I do not see DAL getting any more E175s in the future so Compass will not see any growth.