Originally Posted by
duvie
We expanded at a rate that I doubt we'll see again. The SkyWest seniority list almost doubled in two years, which is why we had such a quick upgrade. Now, to make jet captain, junior folks and new hires would have to see upwards of 2000 pilots hired behind them, a feat that even in (consistent) good times would take at least four years. The reason Eagle has such a long upgrade is because of the size of their pilot group and substantial portion of lifers. I reckon we're in exactly the same boat now so I don't think a minimum 5+ year upgrade in the jet will be unusual. Not pessimistic, just looking at the numbers.
Well put duvie. As I look at the projected senority and retirements pages on SAPA's website it is clear that times have changed. The Captains I fly with are typically young and very smart that make sound decisions. They have seen their peers who have moved on, be furloughed in large numbers. Also, by the time the majors start hiring again beyond recalls, they will be 5-10 yrs into the capt payscale. Will they willing to take the huge paycut to start again at the bottom?? I think the days of large attrition are over.