Originally Posted by
LivingInMEM
The ORM of aircraft design minimizes the threat of that occurring long before the first aircraft ever takes to the sky. When was the last time an aircraft development project was canceled for other than political or fiscal reasons?
FWIW, the new stealth aircraft WILL be detectable by some new technology at some point - that is how this game works. You keep making incremental advances in capability that stay ahead of their incremental advances in their capability. KNOWING that they will make those advances, the long-term stop gap measures that you advocate are doomed to guaranteed failure much sooner than the full development program of the F-22 or F-35.
I agree about the low chances of problems with new aircraft, that is why I said it is too unlikely to justify not getting a new fleet.
I am not saying we should keep 4th generation fighters for the expected duration of the F-22/F-35. What I was saying is we are investing a lot in stealth technology, and if a new development in the future battlefield makes the stealth technology useless, it is a lost investment. It is similar to the development of the aircraft carrier. Some nations invested an insane amount of resources to develop state of the art battleships, but overnight the power of the battleship shrunk immensely. If a similar thing happened to the F-22/F-35, we would have to scramble to make something else.
I understand that over time the advances in military technology will equal the playing field between the F-22/F-35 and their adversaries. Over the life time of the fleet, they will devalue when it comes to capability. I am talking about a sudden change. We would be better off waiting to design a new aircraft after that sudden change than before. Again since it is a rare occurrence and impossible to predict, it is not worth halting development. It is just one of those risks you take when you invest heavily in a design.