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Old 02-15-2010 | 11:25 AM
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Luckydawg
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Joined: Feb 2007
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From: -400 FO
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Originally Posted by weatherman
this is a brainstorming session. feel free to add or answer these top ten head scratchers:


10- If UPS can predict that furloughs can be out till 2015, how come they could not predict, when hiring in 2007, that they would need to furlough two years later. Nobody new the effects of sub-prime mortgages, credit default swaps and the effect these exotic debt and toxic assets would have on the economy and credit available in 2007

9- How does UPS plan on competing with FedEx with so many pilots on furlough, all while FedEx is announcing new, faster 777 service? UPS either wants to get at the RIF language of the contract or they see the next leg down starting with commercial real estate and second mortgages which are both equal to the sub-prime in size.

8- How come UPS did not offer an early retirement package, but would rather furlough the bottom, least expensive pilots on the list. Good question. IMO that BM wanted too much for this group and the company said NO.

7- Is UPS the only airline in history to furlough pilots while being extremely profitable? I believe so

6- Why is UPS telling the pilots about to be furloughed that they should keeping their uniforms and flight bags? Because they look good with all the other uniforms in the closet.

5- Why would UPS furlough pilots a few months before the FAA changes the flight time and duty regs? Is UPS that confident to put their billion dollar business at risk? The next leg down is big or they gain leverage to negotiate changes along with potential work rule changes

4- How does UPS plan to staff the new 767s that are arriving over the next couple years? Same as weatherman but also with retiring 757

3- Why does UPS decide to furlough at the end of a recession rather than at the beginning of a recession? Who says we are at the end? Most recessions are not credit driven, they are inventory driven. This really is more like a depression. It could be much longer lasting or implode again in the near future.

2- How does UPS intend to operate the Anchorage domicile where ALL the junior pilots are currently based? A slow steady shuffle of DC8 and other crews via RIF

...and the number one UPS furlough head scratcher is:

1- How come we were 300 pilots fat last year when we had 2906 pilots on the seniority list, and now we are still 300 fat with 2819 pilots on the seniority list. Double dip or not we still fly a network. IMO we are over but not 300. Could we hit the 170, sure, but we're tight.

Doesn't this seem a bit odd?
The optimist in me says they will be a short furlough somewhere around 54-1XX so that they can get to RIF language and gain some leverage. The pessimist in me says they will furlough 170-250 for a long time because they are a leading indicator of what the economy is doing and aside from 4th quarter 2010 they don't like what they see. I waffle back and forth especially after seeing 247,000 pounds from SDF to ANC recently. Heavy loads going west to Asia, heavier loads everywhere in the Middle East, Asia, Cologne. Don't "mess" this doodoo up UPS!

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Good luck all!

Last edited by Luckydawg; 02-15-2010 at 01:28 PM. Reason: tos
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