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Old 02-25-2010 | 02:49 PM
  #92  
Florida Flyer
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Joined: Aug 2007
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From: CRJ FO
Default An idea to get used to...

Originally Posted by AAflyer
Pure and simple outsourcing! Heck even the manufacturer of the jet knows what it is. Spare me the self branding BS.



<b>http://www.bombardier.com/files/en/supporting_docs/BCA_2009_Market_Forecast.pdf</b>




While the rate of
capacity reductions is expected
to slow, US mainline carriers will
continue to remove older aircraft
from their fleets. Scope clauses
will be challenged as mainline
carriers continue to look for more
optimization opportunities through
regional carrier outsourcing.



An important component of
mainline carrier crew labour
agreements are scope clauses.
These negotiated clauses define
restrictions on the type, number
and size of aircraft that may be
flown by regional airline partners.
Scope clauses are found in both
the US and Europe, but are most
restrictive in the US. Historically,
scope clauses have been a
barrier to outsourcing. However,
scope clauses are considerably
less restrictive than they were
historically, and are permitting
regional carriers to fly more
and larger regional aircraft.

It is
predicted that over the next 20
years, scopes clauses will evolve,
permitting 100-seat aircraft to be
flown by regional carriers, and
play a central role in reshaping the
makeup of the industry.

The mix of the deliveries, 5,800
turboprops and jets in total, will
be strongly influenced by mainline
carrier scope clauses as they
evolve to permit improved network
capacity optimization. On a cost
basis, regional airlines operating
large regional aircraft have proven
to be very competitive even
compared to LFCs flying larger
narrow body aircraft.

(LFC = Low Fare Carrier = Southwest)
Good find, AAflyer...and this is from Bombardier itself!

I highlighted two additional sections of your post to illustrate the future of our industry. The reality is that over the next 10-15 years, regional scope will be raised to 100 seats. As Bombarider says, "...regional airlines operating large regional aircraft have proven to be very competitive even compared to LFCs flying larger narrow body aircraft." The pressure for airlines to improve efficiency is enormous, and it is easier to increase efficiencies by outsourcing large regional jet flying to the regionals.

I see a future where mainline aircraft will fly predominately international, transcon, and high volume domestic routes. Most all small to medium sized markets will be serviced by large RJs (70-100 seats), as the markets could be served more efficently by outcourcing to a regional airline (i.e. lower labor costs, newer and more efficient aircraft, etc).

I think most people currently working at regional airlines should get used to the idea that they will most likely spend their entire careers there. To borrow a line from the Borg, "Resistence is Futile." The writing is on the wall. The die has been cast. Large RJs (or whatever you want to call them) are here to stay, and will mostly end up at regional airlines over the next 10-15 years, for the resons Bombarider listed above.

That leaves one currently working at a regional with three basic options: 1) Stick it out at a regional and hope to make it to a shrinking mainline carrier one day; 2) Make plans at staying at your current regional (or make a lateral move to a "better" regional), where you can enjoy the rest of your career; or 3) Just cut your losses now and pull a Sky High and find a new path in life.

Personally, I would like option #1 to happen for me. But realistically, I know option #2 is the most likely to occur. That being said, I would accept 100 seat RJs at regionals with improved working conditions. Personally, I could be satisified flying a 100 seat aircraft at a regional for my career if I had 15+ days off per month, had a commutable schedule, made 50K a year in the right and 90K+ a year in the left, and had a decent health insurance plan. Is that package as glamorous or as rich as a mainline job? No. But it beats what many regionals now offer, and is better than most non-aviation jobs.

My point is simply this: Now that the RJ genie is out of the bottle, we (as regional pilots, anyway) should stop bemoaning the influx of additional large RJs, and start figuring out ways to make our lives more comfortable flying 70+ seat aircraft, since most of us will be doing so for the rest of our careers anyway.