I saw the future of the airline business a couple of years ago in an aviation industry newsletter - on facing pages were two articles, one titled "UAL Declares Bankruptcy" and the other "Southwest Declares Stock Dividend".

In a deregulated environment, pilot pay is based solely on supply and demand, and sadly ALPA has been among the last to smell the coffee. While ALPA struggles to appear relevant, reviewing recent events reveals that all ALPA legacy carrier pilots have taken it in the shorts to remain employed in a competitive, deregulated environment.

Today's airline environment is the same one in which Costco and WalMart and online bargain hunting thrive, driven by the same market forces - supply, demand and low costs...

For the decades before deregulation, ALPA was able to demand high wages and the airlines kicked and screamed, but complied and raised fares to cover their increased costs.

After deregulation in 1978, the legacy carriers supported higher costs until increased LCC competition and September 11 spoiled the game. While LCCs were growing, ALPA demanded regulated airline pay and benefits then got their heads handed to them on the Chapter 11 platter. Of course, ALPA pilots paid the price in furloughs, lower pay and lost benefits. I wonder how much ALPA leadership has given up in the process...

Today, competition reduces fares, and strictly inhibits fare increases, forcing legacy carriers to slash costs, including pilot staffing, pay and benefits either with ALPA's concurrence or as a result of bankruptcy. Not surprisingly, ALPA has become a toothless tiger. Rest assured that airline managements have screwed this pooch and others as well, but that is a subject for another thread.

This turn of events sucks for legacy pilots, because it demonstrates that ALPA cannot control the forces of the economy. The sad news is that they took in millions in dues (including a bunch of mine) over the decades convincing their members they could do just that and get them big bucks for in the process.

The reality is that pilots are plentiful today. Accordingly, barring an unlikely severe pilot shortage, pay will never reach the $300k level. Because of that, a number of wannabes will drop out, leaving folks who pursue the career because they love to fly. That suits me just fine, because I prefer to share the cockpit with an "aviator" instead of an "airplane driver", just as I prefer to visit a doctor who loves his work more than his new BMW and country club membership.

Unfortunately for those who demand $200K to drive an RJ, human nature dictates that those who love their work will participate for less money... they are being partially compensated by the satisfaction of spending their working lives being satisfied instead of trapped in an anonymous 9 to 5 cubicle in some faceless edifice in some metroplex.

In addition, today, like it or not, pilots are considered and paid to be highly skilled technicians. Technology and regulation have determined that. The days of hairy-chested Ernest K. Gann types regularly slogging through thunderstorms at 7500 feet hand flying a radarless DC-3 with airports all around socked in are gone, replaced by long range airplanes with digital glass cockpits at FL 410 and instant A/G communication. Hell, even the technology in short haul RJs embarrass anything from the '70s. In true bureaucratic tradition, the FAA has regulated the industry to the point where we need to bring a F/A into the cockpit to go to the lav, and be prepared for a third degree interrogation if we need to divert.

Occasionally, a pilot must simultaneously exercise his experience, skill, training and judgment (the recent LAX Airbus comes to mind), but the frequency of those events declines steadily and are far outnumbered by accidents caused by human factors. Justifying $300k/year for saving the bacon of a planeful of grateful tourists is simply becoming a more difficult sell for ALPA when more pilots crash airplanes because they screw up.

More jobs have been made available since deregulation, so more aviators have an opportunity to make a living pursuing their passion. The fact that some were well compensated for flying during regulated days and for some time afterwards is a good thing, but ALPA failed its members because they failed to read the tea leaves and prepare for a true supply and demand market economy in pilot wages. But I guess they can be forgiven because they only had 27 years to do so.