My experience, although it was a few years ago, is that if you have greater than 12 mos retainability they'll retain you so they can send you remote for a year and suck up some bad deal they can't get a non-quitter to do.
I've never seen them make a pilot get out earlier than they wanted in this situation, but I have seen them force him to take an assignment he didn't want.
Remember, you're not turning down the assignment, you're turning down the commitment associated with the assignment.